Northern Ireland Gas Demand Forecasting


Description of impact

In 2007 the final report of the European Commission’s sector inquiry into competition in gas and electricity markets highlighted (amongst other things) the lack of effective competition in European Energy markets.
In response, a suite of legally binding EU legislation, referred to as the Third Package, on European electricity and gas markets was introduced and adopted on 13 July 2009 and came into force on 3 September 2009. It is one of the most important pieces of EU legislation on European gas and electricity markets and consists of three Regulations and two Directives.
On 23 March 2011, the Department of Enterprise, Trade, and Investment transposed the Third Package directives into law by creating the Gas and Electricity (Internal Markets) Regulations 2011. In Northern Ireland, as a result of this new European Legislation, the Utility regulator (UR) implemented a range of additional consumer protection measures, which came into effect on September 2012. More recently the UR made some modifications in the certification of Transmission System Operators (TSOs) to further aid further liberalization of the NI energy market which came into force on 28 March 2014.

Who is affected

In Northern Ireland PNGL operate the largest network, distributing gas to suppliers in the Greater Belfast Area. In preparation for the implication of the above legislation they approached Queen’s Management School (QMS) regarding NDM profile statistical modelling. In the first instance an intensive course on statistically forecasting was delivered over a two-day period to the demand forecasting team in PNGL. Subsequent to this course QMS staff have been in discussion with PNG regarding the possibility of implementing a regional statistical model that will fulfil the requirement of the BAL directives.
Impact statusOngoing
Impact levelEngagement


  • forecasting
  • statistical analysis
  • energy market