Abstract
How do the predicted climatic changes (IPCC, 2007) for the next century compare in magnitude and rate to those that Earth
has previously encountered? Are there comparable intervals of rapid rates of temperature change, sea-level rise and levels
of atmospheric CO2 that can be used as analogues to assess possible biotic responses to future change? Or are we stepping
into the great unknown? This perspective article focuses on intervals in time in the fossil record when atmospheric CO2
concentrations increased up to 1200 ppmv, temperatures in mid- to high-latitudes increased by greater than 4 ?C within
60 years, and sea levels rose by up to 3 m higher than present. For these intervals in time, case studies of past biotic
responses are presented to demonstrate the scale and impact of the magnitude and rate of such climate changes on
biodiversity. We argue that although the underlying mechanisms responsible for these past changes in climate were very
different (i.e. natural processes rather than anthropogenic), the rates and magnitude of climate change are similar to those
predicted for the future and therefore potentially relevant to understanding future biotic response. What emerges from these
past records is evidence for rapid community turnover, migrations, development of novel ecosystems and thresholds from
one stable ecosystem state to another, but there is very little evidence for broad-scale extinctions due to a warming world.
Based on this evidence from the fossil record, we make four recommendations for future climate-change integrated
conservation strategies.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 3-9 |
Number of pages | 7 |
Journal | Systematics and Biodiversity |
Volume | 8 |
Issue number | 1 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2010 |
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Plant Science
- Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics