A 22-Year Retrospective Epidemiological Review Of Thyroid Cancer Trends In Northern Ireland: 1993-2014

W O A Penfold, G Gray, D A Fitzpatrick, E Morgan, C B Donnelly, I M Black, Anna Gavin

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Abstract

Thyroid cancer incidence has increased globally since the 1970s.1 It is important to analyse thistrend in different countries over time for trend comparison. We aimed to describe Northern Ireland’s(NI’s) trends between 1993-2014 analysing by sex, age, stage and morphology.A retrospective, descriptive epidemiological review of NI’s trends, 1993-2014, was conducted withanonymised data obtained from the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry. C73 is the thyroid cancerICD-10 code. We used STATA to calculate incidence statistics and Joinpoint Regression Analysisto analyse trend significance. Registry ethical approval was previously granted.There were 1,212 cases in total (27.06% male, 72.94% female, F:M=2.7:1). Incidence increasedsignificantly in females (1999-2014, annual percentage change (APC) +4.64%, p<0.05, 95%confidence interval (CI) +2.4, +6.9). Frequency increased predominantly in ages 40-64(1995-2014, APC +4.66%, p<0.05, CI +2.5, +6.9). 55.63% of the 320 cases with staging data(2010-2014) were stage I. Papillary carcinoma frequency increased dramatically (2004-2014, APC+11.01%, p<0.05, CI +5.8, +16.4).This study shows that incidence has increased in NI in the last 2 decades in females and middleagedpatients. This is mainly due to papillary carcinomas, potentially mostly stage I. This data maysupport the hypothesis that over-diagnosis has resulted in apparent increasing trends.2,31. Kilfoy BA, Zheng T, Holford TR, Han X, Ward MH, Sjodin A, et al. International patterns andtrends in thyroid cancer incidence, 1973–2002. Cancer Causes & Control. 2009;20(5):525-31.2. Davies L, Welch HG. Increasing incidence of thyroid cancer in the United States, 1973-2002.JAMA. 2006;295(18):2164-7.3. Kent WD, Hall SF, Isotalo PA, Houlden RL, George RL, Groome PA. Increased incidence ofdifferentiated thyroid carcinoma and detection of subclinical disease. CMAJ. 2007;177(11):1357-61.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages1
Publication statusPublished - 24 Feb 2017
EventExcellence in Medicine: University of Bristol medical student conference -
Duration: 24 Feb 2017 → …

Conference

ConferenceExcellence in Medicine
Period24/02/2017 → …

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Northern Ireland
Thyroid Neoplasms
Incidence
Papillary Carcinoma
Confidence Intervals
Registries
Neoplasms
Thyroid Gland
Cohort Studies
Regression Analysis

Cite this

Penfold, W. O. A., Gray, G., Fitzpatrick, D. A., Morgan, E., Donnelly, C. B., Black, I. M., & Gavin, A. (2017). A 22-Year Retrospective Epidemiological Review Of Thyroid Cancer Trends In Northern Ireland: 1993-2014. Poster session presented at Excellence in Medicine, .
Penfold, W O A ; Gray, G ; Fitzpatrick, D A ; Morgan, E ; Donnelly, C B ; Black, I M ; Gavin, Anna. / A 22-Year Retrospective Epidemiological Review Of Thyroid Cancer Trends In Northern Ireland: 1993-2014. Poster session presented at Excellence in Medicine, .1 p.
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title = "A 22-Year Retrospective Epidemiological Review Of Thyroid Cancer Trends In Northern Ireland: 1993-2014",
abstract = "Thyroid cancer incidence has increased globally since the 1970s.1 It is important to analyse thistrend in different countries over time for trend comparison. We aimed to describe Northern Ireland’s(NI’s) trends between 1993-2014 analysing by sex, age, stage and morphology.A retrospective, descriptive epidemiological review of NI’s trends, 1993-2014, was conducted withanonymised data obtained from the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry. C73 is the thyroid cancerICD-10 code. We used STATA to calculate incidence statistics and Joinpoint Regression Analysisto analyse trend significance. Registry ethical approval was previously granted.There were 1,212 cases in total (27.06{\%} male, 72.94{\%} female, F:M=2.7:1). Incidence increasedsignificantly in females (1999-2014, annual percentage change (APC) +4.64{\%}, p<0.05, 95{\%}confidence interval (CI) +2.4, +6.9). Frequency increased predominantly in ages 40-64(1995-2014, APC +4.66{\%}, p<0.05, CI +2.5, +6.9). 55.63{\%} of the 320 cases with staging data(2010-2014) were stage I. Papillary carcinoma frequency increased dramatically (2004-2014, APC+11.01{\%}, p<0.05, CI +5.8, +16.4).This study shows that incidence has increased in NI in the last 2 decades in females and middleagedpatients. This is mainly due to papillary carcinomas, potentially mostly stage I. This data maysupport the hypothesis that over-diagnosis has resulted in apparent increasing trends.2,31. Kilfoy BA, Zheng T, Holford TR, Han X, Ward MH, Sjodin A, et al. International patterns andtrends in thyroid cancer incidence, 1973–2002. Cancer Causes & Control. 2009;20(5):525-31.2. Davies L, Welch HG. Increasing incidence of thyroid cancer in the United States, 1973-2002.JAMA. 2006;295(18):2164-7.3. Kent WD, Hall SF, Isotalo PA, Houlden RL, George RL, Groome PA. Increased incidence ofdifferentiated thyroid carcinoma and detection of subclinical disease. CMAJ. 2007;177(11):1357-61.",
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Penfold, WOA, Gray, G, Fitzpatrick, DA, Morgan, E, Donnelly, CB, Black, IM & Gavin, A 2017, 'A 22-Year Retrospective Epidemiological Review Of Thyroid Cancer Trends In Northern Ireland: 1993-2014', Excellence in Medicine, 24/02/2017.

A 22-Year Retrospective Epidemiological Review Of Thyroid Cancer Trends In Northern Ireland: 1993-2014. / Penfold, W O A; Gray, G; Fitzpatrick, D A; Morgan, E; Donnelly, C B; Black, I M; Gavin, Anna.

2017. Poster session presented at Excellence in Medicine, .

Research output: Contribution to conferencePoster

TY - CONF

T1 - A 22-Year Retrospective Epidemiological Review Of Thyroid Cancer Trends In Northern Ireland: 1993-2014

AU - Penfold, W O A

AU - Gray, G

AU - Fitzpatrick, D A

AU - Morgan, E

AU - Donnelly, C B

AU - Black, I M

AU - Gavin, Anna

PY - 2017/2/24

Y1 - 2017/2/24

N2 - Thyroid cancer incidence has increased globally since the 1970s.1 It is important to analyse thistrend in different countries over time for trend comparison. We aimed to describe Northern Ireland’s(NI’s) trends between 1993-2014 analysing by sex, age, stage and morphology.A retrospective, descriptive epidemiological review of NI’s trends, 1993-2014, was conducted withanonymised data obtained from the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry. C73 is the thyroid cancerICD-10 code. We used STATA to calculate incidence statistics and Joinpoint Regression Analysisto analyse trend significance. Registry ethical approval was previously granted.There were 1,212 cases in total (27.06% male, 72.94% female, F:M=2.7:1). Incidence increasedsignificantly in females (1999-2014, annual percentage change (APC) +4.64%, p<0.05, 95%confidence interval (CI) +2.4, +6.9). Frequency increased predominantly in ages 40-64(1995-2014, APC +4.66%, p<0.05, CI +2.5, +6.9). 55.63% of the 320 cases with staging data(2010-2014) were stage I. Papillary carcinoma frequency increased dramatically (2004-2014, APC+11.01%, p<0.05, CI +5.8, +16.4).This study shows that incidence has increased in NI in the last 2 decades in females and middleagedpatients. This is mainly due to papillary carcinomas, potentially mostly stage I. This data maysupport the hypothesis that over-diagnosis has resulted in apparent increasing trends.2,31. Kilfoy BA, Zheng T, Holford TR, Han X, Ward MH, Sjodin A, et al. International patterns andtrends in thyroid cancer incidence, 1973–2002. Cancer Causes & Control. 2009;20(5):525-31.2. Davies L, Welch HG. Increasing incidence of thyroid cancer in the United States, 1973-2002.JAMA. 2006;295(18):2164-7.3. Kent WD, Hall SF, Isotalo PA, Houlden RL, George RL, Groome PA. Increased incidence ofdifferentiated thyroid carcinoma and detection of subclinical disease. CMAJ. 2007;177(11):1357-61.

AB - Thyroid cancer incidence has increased globally since the 1970s.1 It is important to analyse thistrend in different countries over time for trend comparison. We aimed to describe Northern Ireland’s(NI’s) trends between 1993-2014 analysing by sex, age, stage and morphology.A retrospective, descriptive epidemiological review of NI’s trends, 1993-2014, was conducted withanonymised data obtained from the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry. C73 is the thyroid cancerICD-10 code. We used STATA to calculate incidence statistics and Joinpoint Regression Analysisto analyse trend significance. Registry ethical approval was previously granted.There were 1,212 cases in total (27.06% male, 72.94% female, F:M=2.7:1). Incidence increasedsignificantly in females (1999-2014, annual percentage change (APC) +4.64%, p<0.05, 95%confidence interval (CI) +2.4, +6.9). Frequency increased predominantly in ages 40-64(1995-2014, APC +4.66%, p<0.05, CI +2.5, +6.9). 55.63% of the 320 cases with staging data(2010-2014) were stage I. Papillary carcinoma frequency increased dramatically (2004-2014, APC+11.01%, p<0.05, CI +5.8, +16.4).This study shows that incidence has increased in NI in the last 2 decades in females and middleagedpatients. This is mainly due to papillary carcinomas, potentially mostly stage I. This data maysupport the hypothesis that over-diagnosis has resulted in apparent increasing trends.2,31. Kilfoy BA, Zheng T, Holford TR, Han X, Ward MH, Sjodin A, et al. International patterns andtrends in thyroid cancer incidence, 1973–2002. Cancer Causes & Control. 2009;20(5):525-31.2. Davies L, Welch HG. Increasing incidence of thyroid cancer in the United States, 1973-2002.JAMA. 2006;295(18):2164-7.3. Kent WD, Hall SF, Isotalo PA, Houlden RL, George RL, Groome PA. Increased incidence ofdifferentiated thyroid carcinoma and detection of subclinical disease. CMAJ. 2007;177(11):1357-61.

M3 - Poster

ER -

Penfold WOA, Gray G, Fitzpatrick DA, Morgan E, Donnelly CB, Black IM et al. A 22-Year Retrospective Epidemiological Review Of Thyroid Cancer Trends In Northern Ireland: 1993-2014. 2017. Poster session presented at Excellence in Medicine, .