Abstract
Aims
Type 2 diabetes is a major public health issue that has a large effect on society including its health and social services. The aims of this paper are to generate a projection of the number of cases and explore the potential impact of a preventive intervention targeted at people with pre-diabetes on disease prevalence, complications, mortality and cost.
Methods
A Markov simulation model of diabetes and pre-diabetes in Ireland, for the period 1991 to 2036, was generated based on international epidemiological data. The simulation was calibrated with the available Irish data on the prevalence of pre-diabetes, diabetes and diabetic complications. The economic and health impact of a hypothetical nationwide preventive intervention programme, which reduces the incidence by a factor consistent with the international literature, was estimated under three scenarios of alternative effectiveness and uptake.
Results
The estimated number of people over 40 years of age with type 2 diabetes in Ireland is projected to increase from 216,000 in 2020 to 414,000 in 2036. A prevention programme, based on the NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme, is estimated to result in a reduction of between 2000 (0.5%) and 19,000 (4.6%) in the number of prevalent cases of diabetes in 2036 resulting in substantial health and quality of life benefits.
Conclusions
A wide range of initiatives with uncertain outcomes will be required to reduce the impact of obesity and type 2 diabetes. A diabetes prevention programme seems likely to be worth pursuing as one element of this set of initiatives.
Type 2 diabetes is a major public health issue that has a large effect on society including its health and social services. The aims of this paper are to generate a projection of the number of cases and explore the potential impact of a preventive intervention targeted at people with pre-diabetes on disease prevalence, complications, mortality and cost.
Methods
A Markov simulation model of diabetes and pre-diabetes in Ireland, for the period 1991 to 2036, was generated based on international epidemiological data. The simulation was calibrated with the available Irish data on the prevalence of pre-diabetes, diabetes and diabetic complications. The economic and health impact of a hypothetical nationwide preventive intervention programme, which reduces the incidence by a factor consistent with the international literature, was estimated under three scenarios of alternative effectiveness and uptake.
Results
The estimated number of people over 40 years of age with type 2 diabetes in Ireland is projected to increase from 216,000 in 2020 to 414,000 in 2036. A prevention programme, based on the NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme, is estimated to result in a reduction of between 2000 (0.5%) and 19,000 (4.6%) in the number of prevalent cases of diabetes in 2036 resulting in substantial health and quality of life benefits.
Conclusions
A wide range of initiatives with uncertain outcomes will be required to reduce the impact of obesity and type 2 diabetes. A diabetes prevention programme seems likely to be worth pursuing as one element of this set of initiatives.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | e14540 |
| Number of pages | 8 |
| Journal | Diabetic Medicine |
| Volume | 38 |
| Issue number | 6 |
| Early online date | 21 Feb 2021 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 01 Jun 2021 |
Keywords
- Endocrinology
- Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism
- Internal Medicine
Access to Document
- A simulation study of the economic and health impact of a diabetes prevention programme in Ireland
Copyright 2021 The Authors. This is an open access article published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits distribution and reproduction for non-commercial purposes, provided the author and source are cited.