Abstract
Dengue virus (DENV) transmission in Australia is driven by weather factors and imported dengue fever (DF) cases. However, uncertainty remains regarding the threshold effects of high-order interactions among weather factors and imported DF cases and the impact of these factors on autochthonous DF. A time-series regression tree model was used to assess the threshold effects of natural temporal variations of weekly weather factors and weekly imported DF cases in relation to incidence of weekly autochthonous DF from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009 in Townsville and Cairns, Australia. In Cairns, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence increased 16.3-fold when the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was ,32 °C, the 4-week lagged moving average minimum temperature waso24 °C and the sum of imported DF cases in the previous 2 weeks was.0. When the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature waso32 °C and the other two conditions mentioned above remained the same, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence only increased 4.6-fold. In Townsville, the mean weekly incidence of autochthonous DF increased 10-fold when 3-week lagged moving average rainfall waso27 mm, but it only increased 1.8-fold when rainfall was ,27 mm during January to June. Thus, we found different responses of autochthonous DF incidence to weather factors and imported DF cases in Townsville and Cairns. Imported DF cases may also trigger and enhance local outbreaks under favorable climate conditions.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | e87 |
| Number of pages | 7 |
| Journal | Emerging Microbes and Infections |
| Volume | 2 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 13 Nov 2013 |
| Externally published | Yes |
Bibliographical note
Publisher Copyright:© 2013 SSCC. All rights reserved.
Keywords
- Aedes aegypti
- Autochthonous dengue
- Classification and regression tree
- Dengue fever
- Imported dengue
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Parasitology
- Epidemiology
- Microbiology
- Immunology
- Drug Discovery
- Virology
- Infectious Diseases
Access to Document
- A threshold analysis of dengue transmission in terms of weather variables and imported dengue cases in Australia
© 2013 The Authors. This open access manuscript is distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits distribution and reproduction for non-commercial purposes, provided the author and source are cited.