In this paper we present TANC, i.e., a tree-augmented naive credal classifier based on imprecise probabilities; it models prior near-ignorance via the Extreme Imprecise Dirichlet Model (EDM) (Cano et al., 2007) and deals conservatively with missing data in the training set, without assuming them to be missing-at-random. The EDM is an approximation of the global Imprecise Dirichlet Model (IDM), which considerably simplifies the computation of upper and lower probabilities; yet, having been only recently introduced, the quality of the provided approximation needs still to be verified. As first contribution, we extensively compare the output of the naive credal classifier (one of the few cases in which the global IDM can be exactly implemented) when learned with the EDM and the global IDM; the output of the classifier appears to be identical in the vast majority of cases, thus supporting the adoption of the EDM in real classification problems. Then, by experiments we show that TANC is more reliable than the precise TAN (learned with uniform prior), and also that it provides better performance compared to a previous (Zaffalon, 2003) TAN model based on imprecise probabilities. TANC treats missing data by considering all possible completions of the training set, but avoiding an exponential increase of the computational times; eventually, we present some preliminary results with missing data.
|Title of host publication||ISIPTA'09: Proceedings of the Sixth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications|
|Editors||Thomas Augustin, Frank P. A. Coolen, Serafín Moral, Matthias C. M. Troffaes|
|Place of Publication||Durham, UK|
|Number of pages||10|
|Publication status||Published - 01 Jul 2009|
Bibliographical note(selected in top 20% after the conference, oral presentation, blind peer reviewed by >3 reviewers)
- Imprecise Dirichlet Model, Extreme Imprecise Dirichlet Model, Classification, TANC, Credal dominance