TY - JOUR
T1 - Advanced soft computing techniques for monthly streamflow prediction in seasonal rivers
AU - Achite, Mohammed
AU - Katipoğlu, Okan Mert
AU - Kartal, Veysi
AU - Sarıgöl, Metin
AU - Jehanzaib, Muhammad
AU - Gül, Enes
PY - 2025/1/19
Y1 - 2025/1/19
N2 - The rising incidence of droughts in specific global regions in recent years, primarily attributed to global warming, has markedly increased the demand for reliable and accurate streamflow estimation. Streamflow estimation is essential for the effective management and utilization of water resources, as well as for the design of hydraulic infrastructure. Furthermore, research on streamflow estimation has gained heightened importance because water is essential not only for the survival of all living organisms but also for determining the quality of life on Earth. In this study, advanced soft computing techniques, including long short-term memory (LSTM), convolutional neural network–recurrent neural network (CNN-RNN), and group method of data handling (GMDH) algorithms, were employed to forecast monthly streamflow time series at two different stations in the Wadi Mina basin. The performance of each technique was evaluated using statistical criteria such as mean square error (MSE), mean bias error (MBE), mean absolute error (MAE), and the correlation coefficient (R). The results of this study demonstrated that the GMDH algorithm produced the most accurate forecasts at the Sidi AEK Djillali station, with metrics of MSE: 0.132, MAE: 0.185, MBE: −0.008, and R: 0.636. Similarly, the CNN-RNN algorithm achieved the best performance at the Kef Mehboula station, with metrics of MSE: 0.298, MAE: 0.335, MBE: −0.018, and R: 0.597.
AB - The rising incidence of droughts in specific global regions in recent years, primarily attributed to global warming, has markedly increased the demand for reliable and accurate streamflow estimation. Streamflow estimation is essential for the effective management and utilization of water resources, as well as for the design of hydraulic infrastructure. Furthermore, research on streamflow estimation has gained heightened importance because water is essential not only for the survival of all living organisms but also for determining the quality of life on Earth. In this study, advanced soft computing techniques, including long short-term memory (LSTM), convolutional neural network–recurrent neural network (CNN-RNN), and group method of data handling (GMDH) algorithms, were employed to forecast monthly streamflow time series at two different stations in the Wadi Mina basin. The performance of each technique was evaluated using statistical criteria such as mean square error (MSE), mean bias error (MBE), mean absolute error (MAE), and the correlation coefficient (R). The results of this study demonstrated that the GMDH algorithm produced the most accurate forecasts at the Sidi AEK Djillali station, with metrics of MSE: 0.132, MAE: 0.185, MBE: −0.008, and R: 0.636. Similarly, the CNN-RNN algorithm achieved the best performance at the Kef Mehboula station, with metrics of MSE: 0.298, MAE: 0.335, MBE: −0.018, and R: 0.597.
KW - soft computing
KW - streamflow prediction
KW - seasonal rivers
U2 - 10.3390/atmos16010106
DO - 10.3390/atmos16010106
M3 - Article
SN - 2073-4433
VL - 16
JO - Atmosphere
JF - Atmosphere
IS - 1
M1 - 106
ER -