Are carry, momentum and value still there in currencies?

Mark C. Hutchinson, Panagiotis E. Kyziropoulos, John O'Brien, Philip O'Reilly, Tripti Sharma

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We show that carry, momentum and value predictability in currencies is associated with mispricing. Specifically, investment performance disappears subsequent to published evidence showing portfolio returns are not fully explained by risk. Replicating these studies, we show that the average out-of-sample Sharpe ratio decreases from +0.39 to -0.32. Cross sectional tests show that currencies no longer respond to interest rate and real exchange rate differentials. During this period currency excess returns do not exhibit autocorrelation. Our results are consistent with investors learning about mispricing from academic research.
Original languageEnglish
Article number102245
JournalInternational Review of Financial Analysis
Early online date29 Jun 2022
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2022


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