Brexit, borders, and ballots: the effects of uncertainty and border proximity on electoral turnout in Northern Ireland

This paper examines the impact of Brexit-induced uncertainty on electoral turnout in Northern Ireland, with a particular focus on the influence of geographic proximity to the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Using a multiple regression model, the research compares voter turnout rates from the 2014 and 2019 local council elections, analysing the effect of border distance on changes in turnout. The findings reveal a statistically significant relationship between proximity to the border and increased voter turnout – an increase in 10 km of distance from the border was associated with a decrease in the difference in turnout of .46 percentage points (or .9 per cent), a politically significant effect. The results also revealed an interesting ethno-religious dimension – distance from the border had a stronger mobilizing effect on communities with a higher share of Catholics than it did on communities with a lower share of Catholics. These findings illustrate the impact of uncertainty shocks on political participation and the nuanced effects uncertainty may have on different social groups within divided societies.