Comprehensive evaluation of machine learning models for suspended sediment load inflow prediction in a reservoir

Muhammad Bilal Idrees, Muhammad Jehanzaib, Dongkyun Kim, Tae Woong Kim*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

29 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Suspended sediment load (SSL) flowing into a reservoir contributes to the overall safety of dam. Owing to the complexity and stochastic nature of sedimentation, accurate prediction of reservoir SSL inflow is still challenging. Moreover, research and application of machine learning (ML) techniques for reservoir sedimentation are still deficient. A comprehensive evaluation of six ML models for a reservoir SSL inflow prediction was performed in this study. ML techniques including artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), support vector machine (SVM), genetic programming (GP), and deep learning (DL) were applied to develop predictive models of daily SSL inflow at Sangju Weir, South Korea. Significant input vectors for each model were selected with streamflow, water temperature, water stage, reservoir outflow for different time lags. Model performances were evaluated using various statistical indices including the coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), percentage of bias (PBIAS), Willmott index (WI), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean square error (RMSE), and Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC). The best input combinations were found to be unique for each ML model, but all six models performed reasonably well for SSL inflow predictions. ANN model outperformed other models with R2 = 0.821, MAE = 4.244 tons/day, PBIAS = 0.055, WI = 0.891, NSE = 0.991, RMSE = 11.692 tons/day, PCC = 0.826. The models were ranked based on their SSL prediction capabilities as ANN > ANFIS > DL > RBFNN > SVM > GP from best to worst. The findings are expected to be useful for future dam safety and risk assessment, and for achieving sustainability of reservoir operation through comprehensive sediment management.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1805-1823
Number of pages19
JournalStochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Volume35
Issue number9
Early online date13 Feb 2021
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sept 2021
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This research was supported by a grant(2020-MOIS33-006) of Lower-level and Core Disaster-Safety Technology Development Program funded by Ministry of Interior and Safety (MOIS, Korea).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH, DE part of Springer Nature.

Keywords

  • Machine learning models
  • Risk assessment
  • Sangju weir
  • Sedimentation hazard
  • Suspended sediment load

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Engineering
  • Environmental Chemistry
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • General Environmental Science

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