Dealing with non-equilibrium bias and survey effort in presence-only invasive Species Distribution Models (iSDM); predicting the range of muntjac deer in Britain and Ireland

Marianne S. Freeman*, Jaimie T.A. Dick, Neil Reid

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

9 Citations (Scopus)
44 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Invasive species managers utilise species records to inform management. These data can also be used in Species Distribution Models (SDM) to predict future spread or potential invasion of new areas. However, issues with non-equilibrium (also called disequilibrium) can cause difficulties in modelling invasive species that have not fully colonised their potential distribution and, in addition, sampling bias can result from a lack of information on survey effort, a particular issue for presence only modelling techniques. Geographical confounds are unavoidable when building iSDMs but there are methods that allow prediction to be optimised. We used maximum entropy (Maxent) to model suitable habitat for invasive Reeve's muntjac deer (Muntiacus reevesi) throughout Great Britain and Ireland comparing several methods that aimed to address invasive Species Distribution Modelling (iSDM) bias including spatial filtering, weighted background points and targeted background points built at varying spatial extents. Model evaluation metrics suggested that the model, which explicitly failed to account for non-equilibrium at the full extent of Great Britain and Ireland using random background points, predicted the species' current invasive range best. This highlighted that negative environmental relationships are likely to represent uncolonised areas rather than habitat selection and thus, low predicted suitability of uncolonised areas was misleading. Of the models that dealt with non-equilibrium conceptually best, by restricting the training extent to their current invasive range or core range, and utilised targeted background points accounting for survey effort (cells with other deer species recorded as present yet with no records for muntjac) as the best model evaluation metric, yielded relatively poor predictive performance. This implied limited habitat selectivity or avoidance within the colonised range which, when spatially extrapolated, suggested virtually all regions in Great Britain and Ireland may be vulnerable to future muntjac invasion.

Original languageEnglish
Article number101683
Number of pages9
JournalEcological informatics
Volume69
Early online date26 May 2022
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2022

Keywords

  • Disequilibrium
  • Geographic Information System (GIS)
  • Maxent
  • Muntiacus reevesi
  • Random background
  • Spatial filtering
  • Targeted background
  • Weighted background

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
  • Ecology
  • Modelling and Simulation
  • Ecological Modelling
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Computational Theory and Mathematics
  • Applied Mathematics

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