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Abstract
Reliable chronologies are essential for most Quaternary studies, but little is known about how age-depth model choice, as well as dating density and quality, affect the precision and accuracy of chronologies. A meta-analysis suggests that most existing late-Quaternary studies contain fewer than one date per millennium, and provide millennial-scale precision at best. We use existing and simulated sediment cores to estimate what dating density and quality are required to obtain accurate chronologies at a desired precision. For many sites, a doubling in dating density would significantly improve chronologies and thus their value for reconstructing and interpreting past environmental changes. Commonly used classical age-depth models stop becoming more precise after a minimum dating density is reached, but the precision of Bayesian age-depth models which take advantage of chronological ordering continues to improve with more dates. Our simulations show that classical age-depth models severely underestimate uncertainty and are inaccurate at low dating densities, and perform poorly at high dating densities. On the other hand, Bayesian age-depth models provide more realistic precision estimates, including at low to average dating densities, and are much more robust against dating scatter and outliers. Indeed, Bayesian age-depth models outperform classical ones at all tested dating densities, qualities and time-scales. We recommend that chronologies should be produced using Bayesian age-depth models taking into account chronological ordering and based on a minimum of 2 dates per millennium.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 58-66 |
Number of pages | 9 |
Journal | Quaternary Science Reviews |
Volume | 188 |
Early online date | 06 Apr 2018 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 15 May 2018 |
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Dive into the research topics of 'Double the dates and go for Bayes — Impacts of model choice, dating density and quality on chronologies'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.Activities
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Shell International Rijswijk
Blaauw, M. (Visitor)
11 Mar 2019Activity: Visiting an external institution types › Research and Teaching at External Organisation
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Why Bayes is better – a comparison of classical and Bayesian age-models on real-world and simulated cores dated at low to high resolution
Blaauw, M. (Speaker)
19 Jul 2018Activity: Talk or presentation types › Oral presentation
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More dates and use Bayes - recommendations for robust age-depth models
Blaauw, M. (Keynote speaker)
27 Jun 2018Activity: Talk or presentation types › Invited or keynote talk at national or international conference
Profiles
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Maarten Blaauw
Person: Academic
Research output
- 129 Citations
- 1 Software
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clam: Classical Age-Depth Modelling of Cores from Deposits
Blaauw, M. (Developer), 17 Aug 2022Research output: Non-textual form › Software
Open Access