Economic and Household Impacts of Projected Policy Changes for the Irish Agri-food Sector

Ole Boysen*, Ana Corina Miller, Alan Matthews

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The policy environment for the Irish agri-food sector could change rapidly in the coming decade. A potentially positive factor will be the elimination of milk quotas in 2015, although a potentially negative factor will be further trade liberalisation and increased import competition. These changes come on top of the move to decouple direct aids to farmers in 2005 as part of the Mid-Term Review of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy agreed in 2003. This paper examines these reforms and their impacts on the Irish economy and income distribution using a CGE model particularly rich in detail on the agri-food sectors, differentiated household groups, and agricultural policy instruments including their links to productive factors and households. The results suggest that the past and projected changes in the policy environment have, in sum, a small positive impact on GDP and household income. However, the gains and losses are unequally distributed across sectors and household groups due to the highly differentiated distribution of support and protection. Although all households generally gain from the sequence of policy reforms in the long run, some experience strong adverse effects from particular reforms and in the medium term.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)105-129
Number of pages25
JournalJournal of Agricultural Economics
Volume67
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2016
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Agricultural policy
  • Computable general equilibrium
  • Doha Round
  • Income distribution
  • Ireland
  • Milk quota
  • Single Farm Payment

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Economics and Econometrics

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