Impact of offshore wind power forecast error in a carbon constraint electricity market

P. Higgins, A.M. Foley, R. Douglas, K. Li

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

26 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impacts of offshore wind power forecast error on the operation and management of a pool-based electricity market in 2050. The impact from offshore wind power forecast errors of up to 2000 MW on system generation costs, emission costs, dispatch-down of wind, number of start-ups and system marginal price are analysed. The main findings of this research are an increase in system marginal prices of approximately 1% for every percentage point rise in the offshore wind power forecast error regardless of the average forecast error sign. If offshore wind power generates less than forecasted (−13%) generation costs and system marginal prices increases by 10%. However, if offshore wind power generates more than forecasted (4%) the generation costs decrease yet the system marginal prices increase by 3%. The dispatch down of large quantities of wind power highlights the need for flexible interconnector capacity. From a system operator's perspective it is more beneficial when scheduling wind ahead of the trading period to forecast less wind than will be generated.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)187-197
JournalEnergy
Volume76
Early online date10 Jul 2014
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 01 Nov 2014

Keywords

  • Offshore wind;
  • Electricity markets;
  • Forecast error;
  • Scheduling;
  • Dispatch

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Energy(all)
  • Pollution

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