Impacts of climate change on global agri-food trade

Martina Bozzola, Emilia Lamonaca, Fabio Gaetano Santeramo*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)
57 Downloads (Pure)


Climate change and trade are closely related. Climate may alter the comparative advantages across countries, which may in turn trigger changes in trade patterns. Trade itself may constitute an adaptation strategy, moving excesses of agri-food supply to regions with shortages, and this in turn may explain changes in land-use. We investigate these linkages, showing that the changes in climate affect counties’ trade value and contribute to reshaping trade patterns. First, we quantify the long-term impacts of climate on the value of agri-food exports, implicitly considering the ability of countries to adapt, and show that higher marginal temperatures and rainfall levels tend to be beneficial for countries’ exports. Following a gravity model approach, we then link the evolving trade patterns to climate change adaptation strategies. We find that the larger the difference in temperatures and rainfall levels between trading partners, the higher the value of bilateral exports. Furthermore, while developed and developing exporters are both sensitive to climate change and to cross-countries heterogeneity in climate, we found their responses to changes in climate to be quite diverse.

Original languageEnglish
Article number110680
JournalEcological Indicators
Early online date23 Jul 2023
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2023


  • Climate heterogeneity
  • Climate normal
  • Economic development
  • Export

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Decision Sciences
  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
  • Ecology


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