Mathematical modelling of gonorrhoea spread in Northern Ireland in 2012-2022

Gabor Kiss; Daniel Corken; Rebecca Hall; Alhassan Ibrahim; Salissou Moutari; Frank Kee; Gillian Armstrong; Declan Bradley; Maeve Middleton; Lynsey Patterson; Felicity Lamrock

doi:10.3390/amh69020012

Mathematical modelling of gonorrhoea spread in Northern Ireland in 2012-2022

Gabor Kiss^*, Daniel Corken, Rebecca Hall, Alhassan Ibrahim, Salissou Moutari, Frank Kee, Gillian Armstrong, Declan Bradley, Maeve Middleton, Lynsey Patterson, Felicity Lamrock

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

The number of confirmed positive tests of various sexually transmitted infections has grown recently in the United Kingdom. The objective of this study is to propose a deterministic compartmental model to investigate gonorrhoea spread in Northern Ireland between 2012 and 2022. The differential equation based model includes both symptomatic and asymptomatic spread, spontaneous recovery and treatment compartments. After fitting our model to the monthly number of new positive tests, we found that the basic reproduction number is approximately 1.0030. In addition, we derive the endemic equilibrium of the model, which exists if and only if ℛ0>1. The sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number and the endemic values of the compartments of treated individuals indicate that infection spreading time can have a significant impact on gonorrhoea spread.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	114-141
Journal	Acta Microbiologica Hellenica
Volume	69
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3390/amh69020012
Publication status	Published - 06 Jun 2024

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10.3390/amh69020012Licence: CC BY

Mathematical modelling of gonorrhoea spread in Northern Ireland in 2012-2022
Copyright 2024 The Authors. This is an open access article published under a Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the author and source are cited.
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title = "Mathematical modelling of gonorrhoea spread in Northern Ireland in 2012-2022",

abstract = "The number of confirmed positive tests of various sexually transmitted infections has grown recently in the United Kingdom. The objective of this study is to propose a deterministic compartmental model to investigate gonorrhoea spread in Northern Ireland between 2012 and 2022. The differential equation based model includes both symptomatic and asymptomatic spread, spontaneous recovery and treatment compartments. After fitting our model to the monthly number of new positive tests, we found that the basic reproduction number is approximately 1.0030. In addition, we derive the endemic equilibrium of the model, which exists if and only if ℛ0>1. The sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number and the endemic values of the compartments of treated individuals indicate that infection spreading time can have a significant impact on gonorrhoea spread.",

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AU - Kiss, Gabor

AU - Corken, Daniel

AU - Hall, Rebecca

AU - Ibrahim, Alhassan

AU - Moutari, Salissou

AU - Kee, Frank

AU - Armstrong, Gillian

AU - Bradley, Declan

AU - Middleton, Maeve

AU - Patterson, Lynsey

AU - Lamrock, Felicity

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AB - The number of confirmed positive tests of various sexually transmitted infections has grown recently in the United Kingdom. The objective of this study is to propose a deterministic compartmental model to investigate gonorrhoea spread in Northern Ireland between 2012 and 2022. The differential equation based model includes both symptomatic and asymptomatic spread, spontaneous recovery and treatment compartments. After fitting our model to the monthly number of new positive tests, we found that the basic reproduction number is approximately 1.0030. In addition, we derive the endemic equilibrium of the model, which exists if and only if ℛ0>1. The sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number and the endemic values of the compartments of treated individuals indicate that infection spreading time can have a significant impact on gonorrhoea spread.

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Mathematical modelling of gonorrhoea spread in Northern Ireland in 2012-2022

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