TY - JOUR
T1 - Mathematical Modelling of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Northern Ireland in 2020
AU - Hall, Peter A.
AU - Kiss, Gabor
AU - Kuhn, Tilman
AU - Moutari, Salissou
AU - Patterson, Ellen
AU - Smith, Emily
PY - 2021/4/12
Y1 - 2021/4/12
N2 - In this study, we investigate the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Northern Ireland from 1st March 2020 up to 25th December 2020, using several copies of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model, and compare it to a detailed publicly available dataset. We split the data into 10 time intervals and fit the models on the consecutive intervals to the cumulative number of confirmed positive cases on each interval. Using the fitted parameter estimates, we also provide estimates of the reproduction number. We also discuss the limitations and possible extensions of the employed model.
AB - In this study, we investigate the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Northern Ireland from 1st March 2020 up to 25th December 2020, using several copies of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model, and compare it to a detailed publicly available dataset. We split the data into 10 time intervals and fit the models on the consecutive intervals to the cumulative number of confirmed positive cases on each interval. Using the fitted parameter estimates, we also provide estimates of the reproduction number. We also discuss the limitations and possible extensions of the employed model.
U2 - 10.4236/ojmsi.2021.92006
DO - 10.4236/ojmsi.2021.92006
M3 - Article
VL - 9
SP - 91
EP - 110
JO - Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation
JF - Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation
IS - 2
ER -