Mathematical Modelling of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Northern Ireland in 2020

Peter A. Hall, Gabor Kiss*, Tilman Kuhn, Salissou Moutari, Ellen Patterson, Emily Smith

*Corresponding author for this work

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In this study, we investigate the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Northern Ireland from 1st March 2020 up to 25th December 2020, using several copies of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model, and compare it to a detailed publicly available dataset. We split the data into 10 time intervals and fit the models on the consecutive intervals to the cumulative number of confirmed positive cases on each interval. Using the fitted parameter estimates, we also provide estimates of the reproduction number. We also discuss the limitations and possible extensions of the employed model.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)91-110
JournalOpen Journal of Modelling and Simulation
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 12 Apr 2021


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