Methodology for assessing survivability tradeoffs in the preliminary design process

Aircraft survivability is a key metric that contributes to the overall system effectiveness of military aircraft as well as to a lower life cycle cost. The aircraft designer, thus, must have a complete and thorough understanding of the interrelationships between the components of survivability and the other traditional disciplines as well as how they affect the overall life cycle cost of the aircraft. If this understanding occurs, the designer can then evaluate which components and technologies will create the most robust aircraft system with the best system effectiveness at the lowest cost. A synthesis and modeling environment is formulated and presented that will allow trade-off studies and analysis of survivability concepts to be conducted. This environment then becomes the testbed used to develop a comprehensive and structured probabilistic methodology, called the Probabilistic System of System Effectiveness Methodology (POSSEM), that will allow these trades to be conducted. Initially, consideration of the survivability discipline will be restricted to components of aircraft susceptibility. The methodology is presented here in its formative state, with primary issues being identified and tentative solutions presented. A theater level test case of susceptibility trades is presented.