Mind the gap: soft-linking EnergyPLAN and the Quintel Energy Transition Model for agile energy system costing

This work uses Northern Ireland as a case study to soft-link two national-scale energy models to determine the optimal approach to achieving the net zero carbon transition by 2050. The models used are EnergyPLAN and the Quintel Energy Transition Model (ETM), which both have excellent attributes. EnergyPLAN is a fast, deterministic simulation which focuses upon the heating and power sectors and models a standalone snapshot year of a future energy system, whereas Quintel ETM is a holistic demand-led simulator that uses a fixed base-year and models a snapshot future year by applying forecasted annual changes in supply, demand, carriers, and technologies. System costs have the potential to be more completely represented by Quintel ETM due to its larger scope. However, its users are effectively reliant on complete and correct information being embedded into the simulation base-year which cannot easily be modified. System costs described as deltas from a base year are not practical for responsive energy planning due to constant technological development and market volatility. This work addresses that shortcoming by exporting the heating and power system costing from Quintel ETM to EnergyPLAN, where constituent costs can easily be specified with higher granularity and customisability. The heating and power subset of the Quintel ETM holistic scenario parameters are extracted, then translated into EnergyPLAN simulation parameters. Detailed CAPEX and OPEX parameters are set separately to determine system costs while obeying constraints. In the analysis, various net zero carbon by 2050 routes are assessed under different technology pathways in power, heat, and transport. This approach allows for a stronger cross validation to better inform decarbonisation pathway choices by policy makers.