Modeling Information Diffusion over Social Networks for Temporal Dynamic Prediction

Dong Li, Shengping Zhang, Xin Sun, Huiyu Zhou, Sheng Li, Xuelong Li

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

31 Citations (Scopus)
478 Downloads (Pure)


Modeling the process of information diffusion is a challenging problem. Although numerous attempts have been made in order to solve this problem, very few studies are actually able to simulate and predict temporal dynamics of the diffusion process. In this paper, we propose a novel information diffusion model, namely GT model, which treats the nodes of a network as intelligent and rational agents and then calculates their corresponding payoffs, given different choices to make strategic decisions. By introducing time-related payoffs based on the diffusion data, the proposed GT model can be used to predict whether or not the user's behaviors will occur in a specific time interval. The user’s payoff can be divided into two parts: social payoff from the user’s social contacts and preference payoff from the user’s idiosyncratic preference. We here exploit the global influence of the user and the social influence between any two users to accurately calculate the social payoff. In addition, we develop a new method of presenting social influence that can fully capture the temporal dynamics of social influence. Experimental results from two different datasets, Sina Weibo and Flickr demonstrate the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed prediction method with different evaluation metrics.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1985-1997
Number of pages13
JournalIEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering
Issue number9
Early online date08 May 2017
Publication statusPublished - 01 Sep 2017


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