Abstract
Muddy floods occur when rainfall generates runoff on agricultural land, detaching and transporting sediment
into the surrounding natural and built environment. In the Belgian Loess Belt, muddy floods occur regularly
and lead to considerable economic costs associated with damage to property and infrastructure. Mitigation
measures designed to manage the problem have been tested in a pilot area within Flanders and were found to
be cost-effective within three years. This study assesses whether these mitigation measures will remain effective
under a changing climate. To test this, the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was used to examine
muddy flooding diagnostics (precipitation, runoff, soil loss and sediment yield) for a case study hillslope in
Flanders where grass buffer strips are currently used as a mitigation measure. The model was run for present
day conditions and then under 33 future site-specific climate scenarios. These future scenarios were generated
from three earth system models driven by four representative concentration pathways and downscaled using
quantile mapping and the weather generator CLIGEN. Results reveal that under the majority of future scenarios,
muddy flooding diagnostics are projected to increase, mostly as a consequence of large scale precipitation events
rather than mean changes. The magnitude of muddy flood events for a given return period is also generally
projected to increase. These findings indicate that present day mitigation measures may have a reduced capacity
to manage muddy flooding given the changes imposed by a warming climate with an enhanced hydrological
cycle. Revisions to the design of existing mitigation measures within existing policy frameworks are considered
the most effective way to account for the impacts of climate change in future mitigation planning.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 102-120 |
Number of pages | 19 |
Journal | Geomorphology |
Volume | 270 |
Early online date | 14 Jul 2016 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 01 Oct 2016 |
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Impacts
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Adaptation measures for climate change impact – benefits for Flemish Government, water company (Watering van Sint-Truiden), landowners, communities and the environment.
Donal Mullan (Participant)
Impact: Environmental Impact, Economic Impact, Societial Impact