Offshore wind power forecasting error and electricity market implications

Paraic Higgins, Aoife Foley

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Abstract

Wind energy has been identified as key to the European Union’s 2050 low carbon economy. However, as wind is a variable resource and stochastic by nature, it is difficult to plan and schedule the power system under varying wind power generation. This paper investigates the impacts of offshore wind power forecast error on the operation and management of a pool-based electricity market in 2050. The impact of the magnitude and variance of the offshore wind power forecast error on system generation costs, emission costs, dispatch-down of wind, number of start-ups and system marginal price is analysed. The main findings of this research are that the magnitude of the offshore wind power forecast error has the largest impact on system generation costs and dispatch-down of wind, but the variance of the offshore wind power forecast error has the biggest impact on emissions costs and system marginal price. Overall offshore wind power forecast error variance results in a system marginal price increase of 9.6% in 2050.
Original languageEnglish
Publication statusPublished - 2013
Event8th Conference on Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environmental Systems (SDEWES2013) - Dubrovnik, Croatia
Duration: 22 Sep 201327 Sep 2013

Conference

Conference8th Conference on Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environmental Systems (SDEWES2013)
CountryCroatia
CityDubrovnik
Period22/09/201327/09/2013

Keywords

  • Offshore wind, electricity markets, forecast error, scheduling, dispatch

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    Higgins, P., & Foley, A. (2013). Offshore wind power forecasting error and electricity market implications. Paper presented at 8th Conference on Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environmental Systems (SDEWES2013), Dubrovnik, Croatia. http://www.dubrovnik2013.sdewes.org/