Abstract
Background: An increasingly older population, with escalating numbers of deaths and increased demand for end-of-life care presents challenges worldwide. It is therefore vital that Health and Social Care examine where people die in order to forward plan.
Aim: Establish where people have died 2004-2018 and project which care settings will require more end-of-life care resources by 2040.
Methods: Population-based trend analysis of place of death in Northern Ireland (2004-2018 from Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency). Projections used linear modelling (2019-2040 projections by Office of National Statistics).
Results: Deaths are projected to increase by 45.9%, from 15,922 in 2018 (of which 36.3% will be aged 85+ years) to 23,231 deaths in 2040 (39.8% aged 85+ years). From 2004 to 2018, proportions of home and care home (defined as nursing and residential beds) deaths increased (24.5-27% and 16.3-19.4% respectively), while the proportion of hospital deaths declined (51.9-47.6%). If these trends continue, deaths within the community (home and care home) will account for between 46.7-55.2% of all deaths by 2040. However, if care home capacity is capped at current levels (as of 2018), hospital deaths are projected to account for the largest proportion of deaths by 2040 (51.7%).
Discussion: Rising deaths in an increasingly older population has implications for end-of-life care provision. Findings identified an increasing need for end-of- life care over the next 20-years, particularly within community settings. These projections highlight the need for comprehensive planning to ensure service provision within the community meets population needs.
Funded by Marie Curie
Aim: Establish where people have died 2004-2018 and project which care settings will require more end-of-life care resources by 2040.
Methods: Population-based trend analysis of place of death in Northern Ireland (2004-2018 from Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency). Projections used linear modelling (2019-2040 projections by Office of National Statistics).
Results: Deaths are projected to increase by 45.9%, from 15,922 in 2018 (of which 36.3% will be aged 85+ years) to 23,231 deaths in 2040 (39.8% aged 85+ years). From 2004 to 2018, proportions of home and care home (defined as nursing and residential beds) deaths increased (24.5-27% and 16.3-19.4% respectively), while the proportion of hospital deaths declined (51.9-47.6%). If these trends continue, deaths within the community (home and care home) will account for between 46.7-55.2% of all deaths by 2040. However, if care home capacity is capped at current levels (as of 2018), hospital deaths are projected to account for the largest proportion of deaths by 2040 (51.7%).
Discussion: Rising deaths in an increasingly older population has implications for end-of-life care provision. Findings identified an increasing need for end-of- life care over the next 20-years, particularly within community settings. These projections highlight the need for comprehensive planning to ensure service provision within the community meets population needs.
Funded by Marie Curie
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Number of pages | 1 |
| Publication status | Published - 08 Oct 2021 |
| Event | 17th World Congress Of The European Association For Palliative Care: Exploring New Dimensions - Online Duration: 06 Oct 2021 → 08 Oct 2021 https://www.eapc-2021.org/ |
Conference
| Conference | 17th World Congress Of The European Association For Palliative Care |
|---|---|
| Abbreviated title | EAPC 17th World Congress Online |
| Period | 06/10/2021 → 08/10/2021 |
| Internet address |