To increase uptake of low and zero emission bus technologies, bus fleet operators are offered financial incentives to reduce capital and operational costs. However, there is uncertainty about the most environmentally and economically sustainable method of delivering these incentives and the impact it could have on the procurement, operation and wider life-cycle implications of new technologies. The goal of this study is to develop a framework to investigate the impact of low emission bus (LEB) incentives in terms of the risk and uncertainty of life cycle costs of alternative bus technologies. The life cycle framework developed enables total cost of ownership (TCO) calculations for fleets operating on Route 159, London for diesel, micro-hybrid, mild-hybrid and battery-electric bus (BEB) drivetrains and single & double-deck body configurations. For incentives scenarios (current and proposed operational, capital and infrastructure incentives) on the simulated route, there is no TCO parity between BEB and diesel fleets for any scenario or risk level. Opportunity charging of BEBs results in fewer vehicles, lower infrastructure costs, energy costs and lower TCO in all scenarios compared to depot-charged fleets. Proposed operational incentives increase TCO of micro and mild-hybrid fleets, but capital incentives will make mild-hybrids more cost-competitive. Double-deck BEB fleets tend to have lower TCO in all scenarios than single-deck counterparts. Proposed incentives are not sufficient to encourage rapid uptake of BEBs.
|Publication status||Published - Sep 2019|
|Event||9th International Conference on Life Cycle Management - Poznań University of Technology, Poznań, Poland|
Duration: 01 Sep 2019 → 04 Sep 2019
|Conference||9th International Conference on Life Cycle Management|
|Abbreviated title||LCM 2019|
|Period||01/09/2019 → 04/09/2019|
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A technology impact forecasting framework for the comparative life cycle cost and carbon assessment of alternative bus fleetsAuthor: Harris, A., Jul 2021
Supervisor: Soban, D. (Supervisor) & Smyth, B. (Supervisor)
Student thesis: Doctoral Thesis › Doctor of Philosophy