Reassessing general explanations for long-run change in internal migration: Insights from Norway

Ian Shuttleworth, Stefan Leknes, Michael Thomas

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Internal migration fell in the late 20th and early 21st Centuries in high-income countries such as Australia, the UK, and the USA. High-level explanations for these declines have referred to developmental stage (Zelinsky’s Super-Advanced Society), changed values and preferences (Secular Rootedness), and long-run socio-demographic change (Second Demographic Transition). We assess the relevance of these overlapping interpretations in the Norwegian context via a combination of direct empirical tests, using full-population register data for 1981-2015 and Oaxaca-Blinder analysis, and indirect assessments based on the inherent features of the Norwegian case study. The net effect of population composition and behavioural change has been to increase migration – the upward effects of a typically more educated population and changed household structures outweigh the downward effects of population ageing. Our results raise questions about how far these macro explanations of migration decline are generally applicable. We offer some suggestions for future conceptual and empirical investigation.
Original languageEnglish
JournalPopulation Studies
Publication statusAccepted - 30 Oct 2024

Keywords

  • Internal migration
  • Norway
  • high-income countries
  • socio-demographic change

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