Reducible Diffusions with Time-Varying Transformations with Application to Short-Term Interest Rates

Ruijun Bu, Jie Cheng, Kaddour Hadri

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)
253 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Reducible diffusions (RDs) are nonlinear transformations of analytically solvable Basic Diffusions (BDs). Hence, by construction RDs are analytically tractable and flexible diffusion processes. Existing literature on RDs has mostly focused on time-homogeneous transformations, which to a significant extent fail to explore the full potential of RDs from both theoretical and practical points of view. In this paper, we propose flexible and economically justifiable time variations to the transformations of RDs. Concentrating on the Constant Elasticity Variance (CEV) RDs, we consider nonlinear dynamics for our time-varying transformations with both deterministic and stochastic designs. Such time variations can greatly enhance the flexibility of RDs while maintaining sufficient tractability of the resulting models. In the meantime, our modeling approach enjoys the benefits of classical inferential techniques such as the Maximum Likelihood (ML). Our application to the UK and the US short-term interest rates suggests that from an empirical point of view time-varying transformations are highly relevant and statistically significant. We expect that the proposed models can describe more truthfully the dynamic time-varying behavior of economic and financial variables and potentially improve out-of-sample forecasts significantly.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)266-277
Number of pages12
JournalEconomic Modelling
Volume52
Issue numberA
Early online date11 Nov 2014
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2016

Keywords

  • Stochastic Di¤erential Equation; Reducible Di¤usion; Constant Elasticity Variance; Time-Varying Transformation; Maximum Likelihood Estimation; Short-Term Interest Rate.

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