Refining Risk Estimates Using Models (Chapter 4)

Alison Cameron

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter (peer-reviewed)


In 2004 nineteen scientists from fourteen institutions in seven countries
collaborated in the landmark study described in chapter 2 (Thomas et al., 2004a). This chapter provides an overview of results of studies published subsequently and assesses how much, and why, new results differ from those of Thomas et al.
Some species distribution modeling (SDM) studies are directly comparable to the Thomas et al. estimates. Others using somewhat different methods nonetheless illuminate whether the original estimates were of the right order of magnitude. Climate similarity models (Williams et al., 2007; Williams and Jackson, 2007), biome, and vegetation dynamic models (Perry and Enright, 2006) have also been
applied in the context of climate change, providing interesting opportunities
for comparison and cross-validation with results from SDMs.
This chapter concludes with an assessment of whether the range of extinction risk estimates presented in 2004 can be narrowed, and whether the mean estimate should be revised upward or downward. To set the stage for these analyses, the chapter begins with brief reviews of advances in climate modeling and species modeling since 2004.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationSaving a Million Species: Extinction Risk from Climate Change
EditorsLee Hannah
PublisherIsland Press.
ISBN (Print)978-1-61091-182-5
Publication statusPublished - 2012


  • Climatic changes
  • Global warming
  • Freshwater fauna
  • Extinction risk
  • Coral mortality


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