Routes to collective action among opposition voters: testing efficacy, anger and injustice in Turkey's repeated elections

Political elections can set the scene for strong political identifications and increased motivation for collective action, especially in the context of contentious post-election politics. Deriving from a large literature on collective action and social identities, we focus on collective action intentions following the 2015 parliamentary elections in Turkey. This was a critical period of escalated tension between left and right as well as conservative, secular, and liberal groups in Turkey. It was also unique because the election was repeated after five months due to the parliamentary failure to form a coalition. In the context of the 2015 elections, we ask whether and how diverse political identifications drive collective action intentions via anger and political efficacy. Considering the cancellation of the first election results as a source of contention, we tested the role of perceived injustice for political identifications to predict collective action intentions through anger and efficacy following the second election.

We collected panel data in two waves following each election and we focused on opposition voters of secular, liberal and/or left-wing parties in the parliamentary elections in June 2015 (N = 500) and November 2015 (N = 363). Findings of mediational path analyses indicate that different political identifications among opposition voters may alternate anger and efficacy paths to future collective action intentions in consecutive elections. By looking at elections as a critical period for future mobilisation of politicised voters dissatisfied with elections results, we underline the importance of political identifications in driving collective action intentions in a repressive context.