Seasonal variation in month of diagnosis in children with type 1 diabetes registered in 23 EURODIAB centres during 1989-2008

Christopher Patterson

Research output: Contribution to conferencePosterpeer-review

Abstract

Objectives: To investigate seasonal variation in month of diagnosis in children with type 1 diabetes registered in EURODIAB centres during 1989-2008.
Methods: 23 population-based registers recorded date of diagnosis in new cases of clinically diagnosed type 1 diabetes in children aged under 15 years. Completeness of ascertainment was assessed through capture-recapture methodology and was high in most centres. A general test for seasonal variation (11df) and Edward's test for sinusoidal (sine wave) variation (2df) were employed. Time series methods were also used to investigate if meteorological data were predictive of monthly counts after taking account of seasonality and long term trends.
Results: Significant seasonal variation was apparent in all but two small centres, with an excess of cases apparent in the winter quarter. Significant sinusoidal pattern was also evident in all but two small centres with peaks in December (14 centres), January (5 centres) or February (2 centres). Relative amplitude varied from ±11% to ±39% (median ±18%). There was no relationship across the centres between relative amplitude and incidence level. However there was evidence of significant deviation from the sinusoidal pattern in the majority of centres. Pooling results over centres, there was significant seasonal variation in each age-group at diagnosis, but with significantly less variation in those aged under 5 years. Boys showed marginally greater seasonal variation than girls. There were no differences in seasonal pattern between four sub-periods of the 20 year period. In most centres monthly counts of cases were not associated with deviations from normal monthly average temperature or sunshine hours; short term meteorological variations do not explain numbers of cases diagnosed.
Conclusions: Seasonality with a winter excess is apparent in all age-groups and both sexes, but girls and the under 5s show less marked variation. The seasonal pattern changed little in the 20 year period.
Original languageEnglish
Publication statusPublished - 10 Oct 2012
EventInternational Society of Paediatric and Adolescent Diabetes (ISPAD) 38th Annual Meeting - Istanbul, Turkey
Duration: 10 Oct 201213 Oct 2012

Conference

ConferenceInternational Society of Paediatric and Adolescent Diabetes (ISPAD) 38th Annual Meeting
CountryTurkey
CityIstanbul
Period10/10/201213/10/2012

Bibliographical note

ISPAD 2012 conference proceedings. Abstract published in Pediatric Diabetes 2012 Volume 13, Issue Supplement s17

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