Abstract
Background
lifestyle behaviours and chronic co-morbidities are leading risk factors for premature mortality and collectively predict wide variability in individual life expectancy (LE). We investigated whether a pre-selected panel of five serum markers of biological ageing could improve predicting the long-term mortality risk and LE in middle-aged and older women and men.
Methods
we conducted a case-cohort study (n = 5,789 among which there were 2,571 deaths) within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Heidelberg cohort, a population cohort of middle-aged and older individuals, followed over a median duration of 18 years. Gompertz models were used to compute multi-adjusted associations of growth differentiation factor-15, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, glycated haemoglobin A1c, C-reactive protein and cystatin-C with mortality risk. Areas under estimated Gompertz survival curves were used to estimate the LE of individuals using a model with lifestyle-related risk factors only (smoking history, body mass index, waist circumference, alcohol, physical inactivity, diabetes and hypertension), or with lifestyle factors plus the ageing-related markers.
Results
a model including only lifestyle-related factors predicted a LE difference of 16.8 [95% confidence interval: 15.9; 19.1] years in men and 9.87 [9.20; 13.1] years in women aged ≥60 years by comparing individuals in the highest versus the lowest quintiles of estimated mortality risk. Including the ageing-related biomarkers in the model increased these differences up to 22.7 [22.3; 26.9] years in men and 14.00 [12.9; 18.2] years in women.
Conclusions
serum markers of ageing are potentially strong predictors for long-term mortality risk in a general population sample of older and middle-aged individuals and may help to identify individuals at higher risk of premature death, who could benefit from interventions to prevent further ageing-related health declines.
lifestyle behaviours and chronic co-morbidities are leading risk factors for premature mortality and collectively predict wide variability in individual life expectancy (LE). We investigated whether a pre-selected panel of five serum markers of biological ageing could improve predicting the long-term mortality risk and LE in middle-aged and older women and men.
Methods
we conducted a case-cohort study (n = 5,789 among which there were 2,571 deaths) within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Heidelberg cohort, a population cohort of middle-aged and older individuals, followed over a median duration of 18 years. Gompertz models were used to compute multi-adjusted associations of growth differentiation factor-15, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, glycated haemoglobin A1c, C-reactive protein and cystatin-C with mortality risk. Areas under estimated Gompertz survival curves were used to estimate the LE of individuals using a model with lifestyle-related risk factors only (smoking history, body mass index, waist circumference, alcohol, physical inactivity, diabetes and hypertension), or with lifestyle factors plus the ageing-related markers.
Results
a model including only lifestyle-related factors predicted a LE difference of 16.8 [95% confidence interval: 15.9; 19.1] years in men and 9.87 [9.20; 13.1] years in women aged ≥60 years by comparing individuals in the highest versus the lowest quintiles of estimated mortality risk. Including the ageing-related biomarkers in the model increased these differences up to 22.7 [22.3; 26.9] years in men and 14.00 [12.9; 18.2] years in women.
Conclusions
serum markers of ageing are potentially strong predictors for long-term mortality risk in a general population sample of older and middle-aged individuals and may help to identify individuals at higher risk of premature death, who could benefit from interventions to prevent further ageing-related health declines.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | afab271 |
| Journal | Age and Ageing |
| Volume | 51 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 12 Feb 2022 |
Keywords
- lifestyle factors
- prevention older people
- ageing biomarkers
- life expectancy
- biological ageing
Access to Document
- Serum markers of biological ageing provide long-term prediction of life expectancy: a longitudinal analysis in middle-aged and older German adults
© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society This work is made available online in accordance with the publisher’s policies. Please refer to any applicable terms of use of the publisher.