Short-term and medium-term forecast of oil spill trajectories: application to local and regional scales

Mar Cardenas, Ana J. Abascal, Sonia Castanedo, Helios Chiri, Paula Núñez, Jose Antonio A. Antolinez, Adam Mellor, Annika Clements, Beatriz Perez-Diaz, Raul Medina

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

This paper presents two methodologies to provide short-term and medium-term forecast of oil spill trajectories at local and regional scales. For short-term predictions (within 48 hours), a high-resolution operational oil spill forecast system is developed in Belfast Lough (Northern Ireland). Hydrodynamics are based on a Delft3D model which uses daily boundary conditions and meteorological forcing obtained from Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) and from the UK Meteorological Office. Downscaled currents and meteorological forecasts are used to provide short-term oil spill fate and trajectory predictions in the Lough using the oil spill numerical model TESEO. The system is integrated in a user-friendly web application that allows end users to launch the oil spill model both in case of pollution threat and for training purposes.For mid-term predictions (15–60 days), a stochastic methodology to provide probabilistic oil spill forecasts is presented and applied to the Bay of Biscay (Northern Spain). The method encompasses the following steps: 1) Classification of representative atmospheric patterns using principal component analysis and the k-means technique; 2) Setup of an autoregressive logistic model taking into account seasonality, covariates, long-term trends and autoregressive terms. In the case of an accident, we sample the evolution of the metocean conditions using the autoregressive model, which provides us with possible evolution patterns for these conditions during the forecasting period. These results are used to force the oil spill transport model TESEO allowing the characterization of trajectories in probabilistic terms.Drifting buoys released in Belfast Lough and observations reported during the Prestige accident have been used to validate the operational system and the medium-term forecasting methodologies.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2017 International Oil Spill Conference Proceedings
PublisherAllen Press Inc.
Pages1890-1910
Number of pages21
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 01 May 2017
Externally publishedYes
Event2017 International Oil Spill Conference - Long Beach, United States
Duration: 15 May 201718 May 2017

Publication series

NameInternational Oil Spill Conference Proceedings
Number1
Volume2017
ISSN (Electronic)2169-3358

Conference

Conference2017 International Oil Spill Conference
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityLong Beach
Period15/05/201718/05/2017

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