Simulation supported Bayesian Network approach for performance assessment of infrastructure systems

Mohsen Jafari Songhori, Claudia Fecarotti, Geert-Jan van Houtum

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

We present a simulation supported Bayesian Network modeling approach to evaluate the performance of bridge networks with respect to both infrastructure owner's cost and users' travel time based on bridge level maintenance decisions. By combining system decomposition, simulation and Bayesian Networkm (BN) modelling, our approach enables the construction of a BN model of bridge networks where probabilistic information resulting from simulation are used to populate the conditional probability tables. Our approach is therefore useful when access to actual conditions of bridges and their monitoring is difficult, and the conditional dependencies accross different networks elements are not easily quantifiable. Once built, the BN can be used by infrastructure managers as a scenario analysis tool to assess how maintenance decisions on individual bridges affect maintenance costs and travel time for the whole network. The approach is presented on a small-scale bridge network for demonstration purposes.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication32nd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2022): Proceedings
EditorsMaria Chiara Leva, Edoardo Patelli, Luca Podofillini, Simon Wilson
PublisherResearch Publishing (S) Pte Ltd
Pages1905-1912
Number of pages8
ISBN (Electronic)9789811851834
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 01 Jan 2022
Externally publishedYes
EventThe 32nd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2022) - Dublin, Ireland
Duration: 28 Aug 202201 Sept 2022

Conference

ConferenceThe 32nd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2022)
Country/TerritoryIreland
CityDublin
Period28/08/202201/09/2022

Keywords

  • bridge networks
  • dependability
  • maintenance costs
  • simulation
  • system decomposition
  • travel time

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