Spatial patterns and socioecological drivers of dengue fever transmission in queensland, Australia

Wenbiao Hu*, Archie Clements, Gail Williams, Shilu Tong, Kerrie Mengersen

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

83 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Understanding how socioecological factors affect the transmission of dengue fever (DF) may help to develop an early warning system of DF. 

Objectives: We examined the impact of socioecological factors on the transmission of DF and assessed potential predictors of locally acquired and overseas-acquired cases of DF in Queensland, Australia. 

Methods: We obtained data from Queensland Health on the numbers of notified DF cases by local government area (LGA) in Queensland for the period 1 January 2002 through 31 December 2005. Data on weather and the socioeconomic index were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive model was fitted at the LGA level to quantify the relationship between DF and socioecological factors. 

Results: Our estimates suggest an increase in locally acquired DF of 6% [95% credible interval (CI): 2%, 11%] and 61% (95% CI: 2%, 241%) in association with a 1-mm increase in average monthly rainfall and a 1°C increase in average monthly maximum temperature between 2002 and 2005, respectively. By contrast, overseas-acquired DF cases increased by 1% (95% CI: 0%, 3%) and by 1% (95% CI: 0%, 2%) in association with a 1-mm increase in average monthly rainfall and a 1-unit increase in average socioeconomic index, respectively. 

Conclusions: Socioecological factors appear to influence the transmission of DF in Queensland, but the drivers of locally acquired and overseas-acquired DF may differ. DF risk is spatially clustered with different patterns for locally acquired and overseas-acquired cases.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)260-266
Number of pages7
JournalEnvironmental Health Perspectives
Volume120
Issue number2
Early online date20 Oct 2011
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 01 Jan 2012
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Bayesian spatial analysis
  • Dengue
  • Socioecological factors. environ health

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
  • Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis

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