The global multiple myeloma incidence and mortality burden in 2022 and predictions for 2045

Background
Multiple myeloma (MM) is an important haematological malignancy in older adults, with a relatively poor prognosis. We aimed to present the current global patterns of incidence and mortality from MM, and predict new cases and deaths by 2045.

Methods
Estimated numbers of MM cases and deaths and age-standardized (World) incidence and mortality rates per 100,000 people were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2022 database covering 185 countries. Based on the incidence and mortality rates for 2022 and UN population estimates up to 2045, cases and deaths were predicted up to 2045.

Findings
Globally, 188,000 MM cases and 121,000 deaths were estimated in 2022. Eastern Asia and Northern America accounted for one-fifth of all cases each (21% and 19% respectively), followed by South-Central Asia (11%), and Western Europe (9%). The incidence rates were higher in men than in women with similar geographical patterns. While the incidence rates were highest in Northern America and Australia/New Zealand (≥4/100,000 for both sexes combined), the highest mortality rates (1.8/100,000) were found in Australia/New Zealand, Northern Europe, and Southern Africa. In the absence of changing rates, the estimated incidence and mortality of MM will increase by 71% and 79%, respectively by 2045 relative to 2022.

Interpretation
Our study highlights the substantial burden and variations in MM incidence and mortality reflecting global disparities in diagnosis and treatment. Improved surveillance and better disease control is needed to mitigate the global impact of MM in the presence of population aging and growth.