The macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases in China and India: Estimates, projections, and comparisons

David E. Bloom; Elizabeth T. Cafiero-Fonseca; Mark E. McGovern; Klaus Prettner; Anderson Stanciole; Jonathan Weiss; Samuel Bakkila; Larry Rosenberg

doi:10.1016/j.jeoa.2014.08.003

The macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases in China and India: Estimates, projections, and comparisons

David E. Bloom, Elizabeth T. Cafiero-Fonseca, Mark E. McGovern, Klaus Prettner, Anderson Stanciole, Jonathan Weiss, Samuel Bakkila, Larry Rosenberg

Queen's Management School

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

This study provides estimates of the macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) inChina and India for the period 2012–2030. Our estimates are derived using the World Health Organization’sEPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply andcapital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronicrespiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost ofthe five main NCDs will total USD 23.03 trillion for China and USD 4.58 trillion for India (in 2010 USD).For both countries, the most costly domain is cardiovascular disease. Our analyses also reveal that thecosts are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China’s higher and steeper income trajectory,and to a lesser extent its older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO’s best buys foraddressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	100-111
Number of pages	12
Journal	The Journal of the Economics of Ageing
Volume	4
Early online date	05 Oct 2014
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2014.08.003
Publication status	Published - Dec 2014

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The macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases in China and India: Estimates, projections, and comparisons
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The Economic Costs of Non-Communicable Disease
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@article{685cae8bb9c84506b216cb5d15581332,

title = "The macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases in China and India: Estimates, projections, and comparisons",

abstract = "This study provides estimates of the macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) inChina and India for the period 2012–2030. Our estimates are derived using the World Health Organization{\textquoteright}sEPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply andcapital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronicrespiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost ofthe five main NCDs will total USD 23.03 trillion for China and USD 4.58 trillion for India (in 2010 USD).For both countries, the most costly domain is cardiovascular disease. Our analyses also reveal that thecosts are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China{\textquoteright}s higher and steeper income trajectory,and to a lesser extent its older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO{\textquoteright}s best buys foraddressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial",

author = "Bloom, {David E.} and Cafiero-Fonseca, {Elizabeth T.} and McGovern, {Mark E.} and Klaus Prettner and Anderson Stanciole and Jonathan Weiss and Samuel Bakkila and Larry Rosenberg",

year = "2014",

month = dec,

doi = "10.1016/j.jeoa.2014.08.003",

language = "English",

volume = "4",

pages = "100--111",

journal = "The Journal of the Economics of Ageing",

issn = "2212-828X",

publisher = "Elsevier BV",

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The macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases in China and India: Estimates, projections, and comparisons. / Bloom, David E.; Cafiero-Fonseca, Elizabeth T.; McGovern, Mark E.; Prettner, Klaus; Stanciole, Anderson; Weiss, Jonathan; Bakkila, Samuel; Rosenberg, Larry.

In: The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Vol. 4, 12.2014, p. 100-111.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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T1 - The macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases in China and India: Estimates, projections, and comparisons

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AU - Cafiero-Fonseca, Elizabeth T.

AU - McGovern, Mark E.

AU - Prettner, Klaus

AU - Stanciole, Anderson

AU - Weiss, Jonathan

AU - Bakkila, Samuel

AU - Rosenberg, Larry

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The macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases in China and India: Estimates, projections, and comparisons

Abstract

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The Economic Costs of Non-Communicable Disease

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