Transmission dynamics and final epidemic size of ebola virus disease outbreaks with varying interventions

Maria Vittoria Barbarossa, Attila Dénes, Gábor Kiss, Yukihiko Nakata, Gergely Röst, Zsolt Vizi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

34 Citations (Scopus)
28 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The 2014 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa was the largest and longest ever reported since the first identification of this disease. We propose a compartmental model for EVD dynamics, including virus transmission in the community, at hospitals, and at funerals. Using time-dependent parameters, we incorporate the increasing intensity of intervention efforts. Fitting the system to the early phase of the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak, we estimate the basic reproduction number as 1.44. We derive a final size relation which allows us to forecast the total number of cases during the outbreak when effective interventions are in place. Our model predictions show that, as long as cases are reported in any country, intervention strategies cannot be dismissed. Since the main driver in the current slowdown of the epidemic is not the depletion of susceptibles, future waves of infection might be possible, if control measures or population behavior are relaxed.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere0131398
Number of pages21
JournalPLoS ONE
Volume10
Issue number7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 21 Jul 2015
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)

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