Using Extracted Forward Rate Term Structure Information to Forecast Foreign Exchange Rates

Fearghal Kearney, Mark Cummins, Finbarr Murphy

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Abstract

The difficulty of beating the random walk in forecasting spot foreign exchange rates is well documented. In this paper, we propose a functional principal component-based scalar response model which we benchmark versus leading VECM frameworks. Our approach leads to near systematic outperformance in terms of a comparison of performance measures, and to multiple instances of statistically significant improvements in forecast accuracy. Overall, our results provide evidence that the forward rate term structure contains substantial information about the evolution of the spot exchange rate. Finally, a stylised trading strategy is employed to demonstrate the potential economic benefits of our approach.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-14
JournalJournal of Empirical Finance
Volume53
Early online date11 May 2019
DOIs
Publication statusEarly online date - 11 May 2019

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