A systems approach to the prevention and control of emerging infectious diseases

Abstract

This thesis explores the application of systems science to prevent and control emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) within the context of healthcare policy. It provides a comprehensive analysis, using COVID-19 in Northern Ireland as a case study.

Chapter 1 introduces key EIDs over the past two decades and discusses the challenges of managing these diseases in modern healthcare systems. Chapter 2 conducts a scoping review of existing literature on the role of systems modelling in enhancing EID management. It lays the theoretical groundwork for applying systems thinking, which integrates multiple components and their interactions, using tools like causal loop diagrams and system dynamics models to address complex healthcare challenges.

Chapter 3 presents an ecological study examining the relationship between policy, public behaviour, and COVID-19’s progression. It reveals that stringent policies, coupled with public compliance, significantly reduce transmission rates, underscoring the critical role of cohesive policy and adherence. The findings also show a time lag between infection spikes and hospital admissions, providing predictive insight for healthcare planning.

Building on these insights, Chapter 4 develops a system dynamics model of COVID-19, illustrating how early policy responses can flatten the epidemic curve, reducing strain on healthcare. The model also identifies key feedback loops and leverage points that could inform future policy decisions.

Finally, Chapter 5 synthesises the findings and discusses their implications for healthcare policy, advocating for the integration of systems thinking into policymaking to enhance the resilience of healthcare systems against EIDs.

This thesis contributes a novel perspective on aligning policy, behaviour, and disease dynamics to mitigate the impacts of EIDs like COVID-19 through a systems approach.

Thesis is embargoed until 31 December 2025.

Date of Award	Dec 2024
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Queen's University Belfast
Sponsors	Ministry of Health, Kuwait
Supervisor	Declan Bradley (Supervisor), Frank Kee (Supervisor) & Leandro Garcia (Supervisor)