Inequalities in physical activity as an emergent feature of a complex system

: an agent-based modelling approach

Abstract

The aim of this thesis was twofold. First, to generate and provide an understanding of how leisure-time physical activity inequalities can be interpreted as an emergent feature of a complex system; and second, to explore what types of interventions, their mechanisms and underlying conditions could optimise efforts to reduce inequalities in leisure-time physical activity, consequently improving overall population levels of physical activity. Specifically, an agent-based model was sought to simulate adults making their decisions to practice leisure-time physical activity to understand how these individual-level interactions become the macro patterns we observe at the population level. Next, using this agent-based model, 26 scenarios were run to explore what conditions, components and mechanisms may help reduce inequalities in leisure-time physical activity. The agent-based model was developed in four main stages: (1) conceptual model development, (2) operationalisation, (3) parameterisation and calibration and (4) consistency analysis. The conceptual model demonstrates how multiple levels of income, psychosocial, physical, and perceived environment factors influence an individual’s decision to practice leisure-time physical activity. Incorporating this conceptual model to directly inform the agent-based model, we were then able to produce inequalities in leisure-time physical activity, consistent with patterns reported in the literature. Through a series of scenarios designed to optimise interventions, the model provided a number of key findings which can be useful insights for intervention design and optimisation. In conclusion, this thesis demonstrates that inequalities in leisure-time physical activity can be interpreted as an emergent feature of a complex system. Through the conceptual model development, along with the subsequent agent-based model development and analysis, we demonstrate the importance of appropriately considering intervention design, implementation, and appropriate evaluation strategies to allow for more effective, feasible and maintainable ways to promote physical activity and reduce inequalities in LTPA.

Date of Award	Dec 2024
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Queen's University Belfast
Sponsors	Northern Ireland Department for the Economy
Supervisor	Leandro Garcia (Supervisor) & Ruth Hunter (Supervisor)