Joblessness, religion and economic opportunity in Northern Ireland

Abstract

This thesis investigates economic behaviour in Northern Ireland, focusing on twin themes of joblessness and religion. Its first contribution is to build upon a scholarly literature investigating economic inequality (particularly higher Catholic unemployment) between Catholics and Protestants. Motivated by this literature, it also makes a series of new contributions: probing the possible legacy effects of past unemployment inequality and examining other dimensions and determinants of economic attainment. This research is made possible by a rich source of new data (NILS) and a long series of survey data (CHS).

Chapter Two provides the first thirty-year account of how Catholic/Protestant differentials in unemployment, economic inactivity and non-employment have evolved since 1983. Linear regression analysis shows that the unemployment differential declined sharply during the 1990s - due mainly to a fall in male Catholic unemployment - but continued to exist in 2011. The chapter’s second contribution was an attempt to explain this change. Several developments were implicated: convergence in (observable) productive attributes, employment growth in industries not disproportionately employing Protestants, increased education levels within the labour force, and successive rounds of equality legislation. Though its role was not precisely quantified, discrimination seems to have little impact today. Despite this, there was evidence that unemployment inequality declined partially because unemployed Catholic men quit the labour force in disproportionate numbers.

Recognising that unemployment might have legacy effects falling disproportionately on Catholics (due to higher past unemployment), Chapter Three focuses on males and investigates whether unemployment is linked with future unemployment (‘scarring’) and future labour force withdrawal. Using a dynamic panel model, the scarring analysis - unique for the UK - shows that prime-age men (regardless of religion) who become unemployed face a
2.4 pp higher probability of unemployment ten years later. Human capital loss, employer stigma, and entry into ‘bad’ jobs might be causes. Although this dynamic unemployment penalty is significant, it is too small to have contributed to Catholic/Protestant inequality in 2011. Moreover, regression analysis shows that, compared to men in work, men who were unemployed in 1991 (again regardless of religion) were more likely to quit the labour force twenty years later, and among drop-outs to enter early retirement at a lower rate and long-term illness and home/family commitments at a higher rate. These trajectories might reflect decreasing labour demand, skill mismatches and financial incentives.

Finally, studying a cohort of young adults in 2011, Chapter Four investigates the family and neighbourhood origins of unemployment, non-employment and high-level educational success. It first shows that several childhood circumstances predict adult economic status, including parental economic status, family socioeconomic status and structure, and (to a lesser extent) neighbourhood affluence. Exploiting the data’s hierarchical structure, sibling and neighbour correlations reveal that shared family background has more impact than shared neighbourhood background. Shared family circumstances are especially important for education, consistent with existing studies, but less important for unemployment/non- employment, a new finding. Importantly, after adjusting for childhood background, having a Catholic rather than a Protestant background predicts educational success but not unemployment or non-employment. This first suggests that negative effects of past inequality will become less salient as younger Catholics and Protestants occupy positions of closer economic parity. However, it also suggests that future inequalities might arise.

Date of Award	Dec 2019
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Queen's University Belfast
Sponsors	Northern Ireland Department for the Economy
Supervisor	Ian Shuttleworth (Supervisor) & Duncan McVicar (Supervisor)