Path dependency and the politics of renewable energy in sub-national jurisdictions

Abstract

This thesis examines the institutional sources of resistance that impede the low carbon transition required to address the climate crisis, with a particular focus on how incumbent power conditions sustainable energy transitions. Drawing on the literature on path dependency, carbon lock-in, hard and soft energy paths, and critical energy democracy, the thesis develops a conceptual framework that integrates a multifaceted understanding of the causal and normative conditions that shape energy transitions. The novel concept of inflection points is introduced, operationalised, and applied as an analytical heuristic. The framework is used to analyse how techno-institutional arrangements reproduce dominant energy pathways and constrain transformative change. Building on this synthesis, the thesis examines the evolution of renewable energy policy in sub-national jurisdictions to capture the path dependent reproduction of centralised, technocratic energy systems through institutional design, political influence, and policy choice. Using a qualitative case study approach, based on semi-structured key informant interviews (N = 31) and policy document analysis, this research examines the dynamics of the energy transition in two sub-national jurisdictions: Ontario and Northern Ireland. Ontario’s experience highlights how policy intent to promote decentralisation and community participation was undermined by entrenched centralised infrastructure, political polarisation, and the influence of incumbent actors and institutions. In contrast, Northern Ireland has achieved relatively high levels of renewable electricity deployment, largely through small-scale, farm-based wind generation. The analysis highlights key inflection points in each jurisdiction and demonstrates how institutional power structures renewable energy deployment. The scale, ownership, and governance of renewable energy are shaped by incumbent actors, institutional arrangements, and policy design, which can impede the transformative potential of sustainable energy transitions. The thesis provides a historically grounded, conceptually insightful analysis of renewable energy deployment in sub-national jurisdictions. It advances understanding of how systems condition contemporary policy and governance outcomes at the sub-national scale.

Thesis is embargo until 31 December 2028.

Date of Award	Dec 2026
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Queen's University Belfast
Sponsors	MISTRAL Innovative Training Network
Supervisor	Geraint Ellis (Supervisor) & Brendan Murtagh (Supervisor)