Resilience and adaptation of First Nations communities in Canada to disappearing winter road infrastructure in a changing climate

Abstract

In Canada, winter roads constructed over seasonally frozen lakes, rivers, and land serve as vital lifelines for remote First Nations communities. Winter surface air temperature increases of more than 3 °C have led to shorter operating seasons and reduced lake ice thickness, compromising safety, supply, access, and well-being.

Research on the environmental changes and socioeconomic implications for winter road communities has been hampered by limited observational data and a lack of economic or political relevance. Few studies exist about the relationship of local climate with winter road seasonal length and the traditional knowledge shaping the adaptive capacity and resilience of Indigenous communities.

Available spatial and lake ice thickness records, remote sensing, climate reanalysis and model data were used to map the infrastructure connecting First Nations, create temperature and lake ice profiles at 11 study sites, and project warming and ice thickness as proxies for winter road conditions in the future. Surveys and interviews in a Manitoba First Nations community complement the research, applying a decolonising approach.
The new spatial dataset of public winter roads for the 2022-2023 season illustrates some all-season replacements and the routing of ice roads onto land. The 1952-2022 trends of winter warming, shorter periods of consecutive freezing, and lower ice thickness will continue in the future and increasingly differ between study sites. In 2049-2069, the ice thickness at some locations will no longer support construction equipment under a high emissions scenario. Despite the remoteness of York Factory First Nation leading to higher living costs, educational deprivation, and a housing crisis, most community members surveyed feel culturally equipped to adapt to the uncertainty and unreliability of winter roads under climate change. This could be further improved through a coordinated, high-resolution, and equitable integration of climate, hydrology, and geology data and traditional knowledge.

Thesis embargoed until 31st December 2027.

Date of Award	Dec 2025
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Queen's University Belfast
Sponsors	NERC QUADRAT
Supervisor	Donal Mullan (Supervisor), Gemma Catney (Supervisor) & Matteo Spagnolo (Supervisor)