AbstractThis thesis describes the construction and use of a model of the system which generates the demands for fuel in Northern Ireland.
The end use demands for fuel can be classified as low temperature heat such as space heating, special such as television, work such as transport and high temperature heat such as welding. These demands result in a demand for primary fuels and at present there are no economically viable sources of primary fuels in Northern Ireland so that all primary fuel is imported.
The demand side of the Northern Ireland energy system is considered to be composed of the following seven sectors: domestic; private transport; public transport; agriculture; movement of goods; industry;commerce and public service. Based on population and economic activity as driving functions, an activity analysis is made of each of these sectors from an end use fuel demand viewpoint and the total demand system structure is modeled.
The model is regarded as an instrument for testing assumptions about the future values of system parameters and producing 30 year predictions of the resultant primary fuel demands in terms of oil equivalent. Three scenarios - the most likely outcome, the high energy demand case and the low energy demand case - are run on the model and the results discussed.
|Date of Award||1981|
|Supervisor||J. Bates (Supervisor)|